MODELLING THE INFLATIONARY PROCESSES AND FORECASTING: AN APPLICATION OF ARIMA, SARIMA MODELS

The purpose of this research is to model the inflationary processes on the based of autoregressive and moving average processes and determine the short-term inflation forecasting model. Modelling the inflationary processes and forecasting estimation assume great importance while developping the investment projects, indexation of wages, predetermining the macroeconomic policy and preventive measures. The advanced forecasting models such as ARIMA and SARIMA have been applied in this study.