RISK REDUCTIONTHROUGH OPTIMAL GRAZING SCENARIOS FOR LIVESTOCK/FORAGE SYSTEMS IN TEXAS PANHANDLE

Mathematical models are developed to determine optimum grazing scenarios for dryland producers. Model alternatives include wheat, sorghum-sudan, summer perennial grass, and native range. Precipitation risk and price risk are estimated for seasonal production alternatives, and options that reduce both price risk and production risk are examined. Dryland producers are constrained by individual resources and may be unable to adopt regionally optimum strategies. Risk may be reduced for producers even if constraints prevent adoption of optimal strategies. Dryland producers face market risk as well as significant production risk due to variable precipitation patterns. Combination systems that adopt both winter and summer grazing may reduce overall risk due to the negative correlation between winter and summer seasonal precipitation. Optimization models that can be tailored to individual landowner needs may provide greater opportunity for small landowners to reduce risk.